I wrote three weeks ago that the Tar Heels were looking more like an NIT team than an NCAA Tournament team after their drubbing at the hands of Wake Forest, and they haven’t changed that impression in the last four games. In fact, if anything, they’ve reinforced the idea that this team is not going to the Big Dance this year. They ended a three-game skid with a win at N.C. State, but promptly reverted to their woeful ways with another three-game skid. With the ACC season halfway over, they are at 2-6 in the league, 13-10 overall.

The good news for UNC’s NCAA hopes is that the league has shown itself to be thoroughly mediocre this season, so there’s a good chance to move up the standings, which currently look like this:

I think if the Heels go 8-8 in the ACC, they will end up with solid NCAA Tournament credentials since that would give them a 19-12 overall record, plus they would have gone 6-2 leading up to the postseason, with at least one win over either Duke or Wake Forest, both of whom are in the top three in the league right now. At that point, even if they don’t win a game in the ACC Tournament, I would say they have a solid shot at an NCAA berth.

If they go 7-9 in the league, however, I think they’re going to be in trouble. The only way I can see them getting into the Big Dance with that record would be if they knock off Duke and make a strong run in the ACC Tournament (probably as in getting to the title game). And even at that point it would be iffy. I can’t see the ACC getting more than six NCAA bids this season, and if you look at the standings, even if the current top five teams in the league all go just .500 the rest of the way, they would still be out of UNC’s reach unless the Tar Heels go at least 7-1 (in which case there would be no worries about UNC’s tournament  hopes anyway). So in essence UNC is fighting for the last bid from the ACC. While UNC certainly can win more games, the problem is that there are currently four teams between it and the sixth spot in the standings. Even if a couple of the top five teams tumble, chances are at least a couple of those four teams in the middle of the standings would rise as a result and keep UNC out of the top six spots in the league. So if UNC goes 7-9 in the league and finishes outside of the top six, it would be hard to give a bid to the Heels over another team that’s ahead of it in the league standings without some additional compelling reason, such as a big run in the conference tournament.

How UNC Will Get in the NCAA Tournament

Of course, the Tar Heels would have to actually start winning games before it has any reason to be scoreboard-watching. On the bright side, UNC’s schedule does get easier than the first half of the season, as it plays the two teams below it in the standings — Miami and N.C. State. UNC also has three games against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College, three of the four teams in that glut in the middle of the standings, so the Tar Heels do have some control over their own destiny as they play some of the teams they are trying to catch. All of those teams have shown themselves to be inconsistent and beatable for UNC. It’s no easy task to run the table against these teams, but it’s something UNC must do to have any shot at getting into the Big Dance.

That leaves the two games against Duke and the road game at Wake Forest. Duke has looked vulnerable, especially on the road, and is ripe for an upset. The question is whether this UNC team can pull it off. I think it’d be asking too much for these Tar Heels to win in Cameron, so the upset would likely have to come this Wednesday night in Chapel Hill.

So here’s what I think UNC needs to do to more or less secure an NCAA berth: Upset Duke on Wednesday or win at Wake Forest (which I think is tougher to do than beating Duke in Chapel Hill) and go 5-0 against FSU, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, and N.C. State. That would assure them of no worse than 8-8 in the league, with quality wins over top-10 opponents Duke and Michigan State and a tough strength of schedule.

If UNC goes 0-3 against Duke and Wake Forest, then I really think it would need to make a run to the ACC tournament final to have a legitimate shot at an NCAA berth. If they make it that far, they would have naturally picked up a couple quality wins along the way in the ACC tournament while beefing up their overall record.

All these scenarios aside, my gut feeeling is that UNC will play better in the second half of the season, but will likely finish no better than 7-9 (and 6-10 seems more probable), and end up in the NIT. Hopefully, it’ll leave such a horrible taste in the young players’ mouths that they will never want to experience it again.

Looking Back at the First Half of the ACC Season

UNC’s road woes haven’t helped its cause, but if you look at UNC’s three road ACC losses in the first half of the season — at Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland — I think they were to be expected anyway even if UNC was playing better. You knew Clemson’s pressure defense would be a tough matchup for the Heels’ young backcourt, and I expected that one to be ugly. I also expected UNC to struggle at Maryland, considering the Terps and Greivis Vasquez gave last season’s Tar Heels fits, much less this season’s team. And Virginia Tech has become one of the tougher places to play in the league, so I was figuring that game to be a toss-up, which was exactly what it ended up being, going down to the final minute.

The problem has been how the Heels have fared in Chapel Hill since league play began, going 1-3 in ACC games in the Smith Center, with the losses being a last-second defeat to Georgia Tech and drubbings at the hands of Wake Forest and Virginia. Even in the two blowouts, UNC was in a competitive game at some point in the second half. If the Tar Heels could have won two of those three, they would be right in the middle of the conference standings and in decent position to make a second-half run to secure an NCAA bid instead of the backs-against-the-wall situation they find themselves in.

As far as how the team is playing, I think the Heels are performing a little better now than back when they were losing to Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Wake. I can see some of the younger players making progress again, whereas a couple weeks ago they seemed to be regressing. The problem is that this team has not just one, but three big weaknesses — ball-handling, defense, and half-court offense — and two of those three seem to crop up in each game to doom the Tar Heels. Also, their key players are taking turns disappearing each game, and this isn’t a team that can overcome that.

A few other observations:

• I don’t know if anybody is keeping track of such stats, but Marcus Ginyard must have one of the worst touches-to-turnovers ratio in the league. Forget the shooting woes that the TV announcers keep mentioning or the less-than-stellar defense that he has been showing in part because of his injuries. What the Heels need from Ginyard more than anything else is sound decisions with the ball, and he’s not giving them that, not by a long shot. It seems like half the time he touches the ball, he ends up turning it over. Most of the time it’s not even due to good defense, but rather his own mental lapses, whether it be not cleanly handling a simple pass on the perimeter or making terrible passes up court in transition. In many ways, he has shown worse judgment with the ball than the less experienced players.
• I’m getting sick of watching Larry Drew II drive to the basket only to whip an impossible pass every time to an unsuspecting teammate that usually leads to a turnover. The frustrating thing is that he would do this even when he has his man beat and has a decent shot at a driving layup. That’s the main advantage Dexter Strickland has over Drew — Strickland isn’t afraid to drive to the hoop and finish, while Drew is.
• If the Tar Heels are going to make a second-half run, I have a feeling Jon Henson is going to be a big part of it. He has come on strong in the last couple games and seems to be getting more comfortable offensively. His long frame already makes him a good perimeter presence on defense, and he has started aggressively taking the ball to the hoop, something this team has sorely lacked. Even with his lanky build, I think he’s getting closer to becoming a consistently valuable contributor.
• One trend to watch for in the coming weeks: Opposing players getting back on defense trying to poke away from Dexter Strickland from behind. Strickland had his pocket picked from behind a few times while flying up court in the loss at Virginia Tech and showed similar unsteadiness at Maryland. It doesn’t take long for other teams to pick up on the fact that he’s kind of loose with the dribble in transition.
• Ed Davis may be averaging 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, but that’s got to be the least impactful near double-double in the country. He just never seems to be a factor when UNC needs a basket, and despite his rebounds and blocked shots, he too often gets muscled into bad position on defense, allowing opposing big men to score easily in the lane. On offense, he doesn’t establish himself enough in the post, and he doesn’t convert enough of the easy first and second chances he gets around the basket.
• Watching this team play, I’m reminded of the 8-20 season back in 2002. I don’t mean this team is as bad as that squad. But I remember watching that year’s team and thinking, “Any moment now, they’re going to have a key play or spurt that flips on the switch and this team is going to figure it out and turn things around.” Of course, they never did. That season taught me that 1) no program is too big to fail, and 2) there is no switch to flip. A team gets better incrementally, and a squad playing horrible basketball with multiple gaping holes isn’t going to become a winning team overnight. The difference between this year’s team and the 8-20 team is that the 8-20 team was bad because it didn’t have good players, while this season’s team is bad because it’s playing with it head in its ass. It’s not being out-talented; it’s killing itself with horrible mental lapses, often on the simplest of plays, such as making a basic entry pass or covering the other team’s best 3-point shooter.
• Going into the season, many people were expecting this squad to play like the 2005-06 team, which had a good season despite losing most of their top players to the NBA after a title year. Here are some surprising stats: This season’s team is actually averaging more points, more rebounds, and more blocked shots than that 2005-06 squad, with an essentially identical assists-to-turnover ratio. Of course, that 2005-06 teams played better defense and shot much better from the free-throw line. By the way, that team was 3-3 in the league before winning nine of its last 10 regular-season games to finish 12-4 in the ACC.
• If you are wondering whether this UNC team is closer to the middle or the bottom of the league in terms other than wins and losses, consider this number: It has lost four ACC games by double digits — more than anyone else in the league, even the two teams below it in the standings. That doesn’t bode well, and is another sign that this isn’t a team that’s on the verge of a turnaround. I would say that right now UNC has a better chance of finishing last than it has of finishing sixth.